China’s population has long been a topic of global interest and, more recently, growing skepticism. While official figures consistently place the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the world’s most populous country or a close second to India, a chorus of demographers and analysts are casting doubts on the accuracy of Beijing’s numbers. Here’s what we know, what’s in dispute, and why it matters.

Official Numbers: What Do They Say?

Most international databases, drawing from United Nations data and Chinese government releases, estimate China’s population in 2025 at around 1.42 billion people. Worldometer, for example, lists the population as 1,416,340,126 as of June 2025, while MacroTrends puts it at 1,424,381,924, noting a slight decline from previous years. These numbers suggest China still accounts for roughly 17% of the world’s total population.

The Skeptics: Claims of Overreporting

Despite these official statistics, a number of demographers and independent analysts argue that China’s real population may be significantly lower. Some, like demographer Yi Fuxian, claim the true figure could be closer to 1.2 billion, citing persistently low fertility rates and the legacy of the one-child policy. A recent Newsweek report quoted a Chinese scientist who believes the population may be overreported by more than 100 million people, with local governments allegedly inflating numbers to secure greater funding from Beijing.

Historical census data has also been called into question. Critics note that China’s total fertility rate (the average number of children per woman) has been below the replacement level of 2.1 since the early 1990s, yet official population figures continued to rise or remain stable. For example, in the 2000 census, the government reportedly revised the initial finding of 1.24 billion upwards to 1.27 billion.

Why the Discrepancy?

Several factors contribute to the uncertainty:

• Low Fertility Rates: China’s fertility rate has dropped to around 1.0, among the lowest in the world, making sustained population growth unlikely without significant immigration—which China does not have.

• Aging Population: The median age in China is rising rapidly, with projections that by 2050, half the population could be over 50 years old.

• Data Transparency: China’s lack of independent verification and limited press freedom make it difficult for outside observers to confirm official statistics.

• Local Incentives: Local governments may overreport residents to receive more resources from the central government.

What Do International Experts Say?

Not all experts agree with the claims of massive overreporting. Some demographers outside China argue that, while there may be some inflation, the gap is unlikely to be as large as 100–200 million people. They point to multiple censuses conducted since the early 2000s that have not found evidence of such dramatic discrepancies.

What’s the Impact?

The debate over China’s real population is more than academic. Population size affects everything from economic planning and social services to military and foreign policy. If China’s population is significantly smaller and aging faster than officially reported, the country could face a sharper economic slowdown and greater challenges in supporting its elderly citizens.

Conclusion

While the official figure for China’s population in 2025 hovers around 1.42 billion, credible voices suggest the real number could be 100 million or more lower due to overreporting and demographic shifts. The true figure remains uncertain, but what is clear is that China’s demographic landscape is changing rapidly, with profound implications for its future and the world.